Yippeee. No classes! It’s a non-working holiday only because our dear President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is going to deliver her State of the Nation Address (SONA) in front of Congress. SONA will be the biggest media attraction today. In fact, I have an assignment for it so that means I have to stay glued to the TV. The nation is really divided whether she should stay or resign. In fact, Congress is 12 votes short to impeach. She shouldn’t go unless there is a more suitable leader to take her place. And there is none.
Edit: My reaction paper to the State of the Nation Address: (July 26, 2005)
Application of Dahrendorf’s Conflict Theory in the Gloriagate Scandal
Unlike Marxist conflict theories, which focus on production relations, Ralf Dahrendorf takes an entirely different approach with authority relations as the motivation of social conflict. According to his theory, conflict exists between authority and his subordinates because both have conflicting interests. The dominant groups seek to maintain the status quo and the subordinate groups seek to change it and contest the dominant groups’ legitimacy.
The struggle between the interests of the dominant and subordinate groups is the theory’s strongest point in analyzing today’s current political crisis—the allegation that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA) conspired with a COMELEC officer to cheat and obtain a winning margin in the 2004 Presidential elections. Opposition groups claim that the election returns from disputed areas were inconsistent, and the situation worsened when tapes of wiretapped phone conversations were reveled by Presidential Spokesperson Ignacio Bunye and former NBI deputy director Samuel Ong. These tapes served as enough proof of President Arroyo’s committing electoral fraud for her enemies, who were never convinced that she truly won the elections. Since the discoveries of these tapes, they have been calling for GMA to step out of office through various demonstrations all over the city.
President Arroyo’s allies, the dominant group, are mostly members of the Senate and House of Representatives, and include the conservative elite. Local government executives in Metro Manila and in key provinces also support her. They insist that it is impossible for Mrs. Arroyo to have rigged the elections and echo President’s version of events that she spoke to COMELEC Commissioner Garcillano when the counting had been mostly completed and the outcome beyond doubt. They demand more concrete evidence as dictated by law in order that charges of wrongdoing may be validly brought against the President.
The opposition group can be thus considered as the minority group because they want to change the status quo based on doubts on the legitimacy of the dominant group’s hold on power. Two very outspoken members of the opposition group have been very active in rallying the people to fight for President Arroyo’s resignation. The first is Senator Panfilo Lacson, the self-declared unifier of all opposition forces demanding that President Arroyo leave office. In a press conference at the Manila Hotel, Senator Lacson launched the “Be Not Afraid” Movement and distributed copies of the wiretapped phone conversations to inform the people of the massive election fraud allegedly perpetrated by the President. The second one is Susan Roces, the widow of former Presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. According to Senator Juan Ponce Enrile, Susan Roces has emerged as the strongest moral force for all opposition forces to unite in challenging President Arroyo right to govern. Enraged by President Arroyo’s public apology, she accused GMA of having “stolen the presidency not only once, but twice” and destroying the trust of the Filipino people.
Another anti-GMA group is the Communist-led National Democratic Front (NDF). They have been holding peace talks off and on with the government since 1986 and have finally closed its doors to President Arroyo’s supposedly crumbling administration, saying that they would rather wait for a new government. The NDF is supportive of the resignation of GMA as well as Vice President Noli de Castro because of their questionable legitimacy, and are vying for a “transitional governing council composed of representatives of a broad sector of patriotic and progressive individuals”.
It is interesting to note that Fernando Poe Jr. came in second in the electoral race and that Senator Lacson, a presidential candidate himself, came in third; their defeat against President Arroyo relegated them to the subordinate group. Their manifest interests are their desire for justice for the Filipino voters through President Arroyo’s resignation. However, it is suspicious that Senator Lacson’s claims of doctored electoral returns came out more than a year after the release of the 2004 election results—and even more suspicious that his allegations came out during the start of the Gloriagate conflict. And while Susan Roces says that her goal is to continue her late husband’s quest for truth, she states that she is also prepared to lead the people if the time is right. The whole irony of the situation is that they are using extra-constitutional means in fighting what they believe is a dishonest and corrupt leader. Perhaps the latent interests of the two lies more in political ambition and personal gains rather than in their principles and moral values. They have clear vested interests in driving Mrs. Arroyo out of Malacanang.
Aside from the manifest/latent interests, another facet of Dahrendorf’s conflict theory at work in the political crisis is that the consensus for different groups to unite against one cause is not an agreement but a forced constraint. These opposition groups will not achieve their goal by fighting their enemy independent of each other; they need to form an alliance to make a more formidable opponent. Although Senator Lacson, Susan Roces, and the NDF share a common enemy and are fighting for a common goal, the coalition among these groups will not last. In the unlikely chance that they succeed in removing GMA from office by force, conflict among the three groups will eventually emerge once a leadership vacuum emerges and they aspire to head the government. After all, there can only be one president in a democracy.
The weaknesses in Dahrendorf’s conflict theory in the context of the Gloriagate issue are not weaknesses per se, but more unhelpful in analyzing this political crisis. The first weakness is the sphere of control of an authority figure. Clearly, President Arroyo has exercised her authority by refusing to resign in spite of the mounting political pressure from the mainstream opposition and leftist groups. However, she cannot impose her will in the context of her personal life or in relation to leaders of other nations. Her family has not been spared from political mudslinging and her husband and eldest son have left for abroad to avoid further controversy. Her stature in the international stage has suffered from the harsh attacks on her government.
The second weakness is the statement that society does not want equilibrium but change. This seems to be the case in Philippine politics. Ever since the People Power Revolution, Filipinos automatically turn to the streets at the sign of .perceived injustice and call for a resignation or impeachment. But a change of leaders is useless if the next leader continues to lead a system that breeds the same vicious cycle all over again. To want change, or even equilibrium, is not enough; one should have a clear plan on what the new system should be. The problem with the opposition groups is that for all their leaders’ bravado and claims that they are ready to lead the country if they really must, they never proposed a clear strategy that will help eliminate the government’s flaws.
To summarize the application of Dahrendorf’s theory in the Gloriagate issue, there exist two players: a dominant group—President Arroyo and her allies—and a subordinate group—various opposition groups spearheaded by Senator Lacson, Susan Roces and others who are out to grab power for themselves. The radical left wants to advance its revolutionary agenda. All have conflicting interests. The opposition groups have been clamoring for change—namely, President Arroyo’s resignation—because they claim that she betrayed the trust of the Filipino people due to alleged electoral fraud. President Arroyo, on the other hand, refuses to bend to the wishes of the opposition. By staying in office, she maintains the status quo. It could be said that the opposition groups have a manifest and latent interest. Their manifest interests are the allegations they made in every single newspaper and news show—that President Arroyo’s position was earned through dishonest means. But their latent interests could lie in a desire to be part of the dominant group and wield the authority now enjoyed by President Arroyo.
